The race for the NL MVP is about as wide open as the race for the 5 NL Playoff spots. Currently there are 11 of the 15 teams within 6 games of a playoff spot and 4 teams not including the leaders within 2 games. The race for the MVP is going to likely be decided by who can push their teams into the playoffs. A recent poll by MLB.com had the Freddie Freeman from Atlanta as the leading vote getter, with Nolan Arenado from Colorado 10 points behind. The poll also had Lorenzo Cain in the running receiving just 16 votes, but still in 3rd place in front of players like Javy Baez, Christian Yelich, and Matt Carpenter.
There are of course many opinions on what qualifies as an MVP caliber season, do you look at offensive production, defensive capabilities, or all of it. Do you depend on WAR (Win above replacement), which I believe still doesn't tell the entire story. Does your team have to make the playoffs to be considered? All of these factors are widely debatable, and I would imagine voters take into account a little bit of all of them. What I want to see in the voting is that voters will watch the players, look at stats, but not rely on a computer to make a decision on something that needs that personal touch.
If I'm voting for MVP I'm looking at offensive production as the 1st qualifier, you have to be producing offensively to be the most valuable player. The name of the game is to score more runs than the other team, so if you are responsible for producing runs for your team you are providing value to winning. When I look at that I want to see runs scored and runs batted in, because that shows me exactly how many runs this player has produced. If you aren't scoring a bunch of runs you should be driving them in. The next offensive category is going to be slash line; batting avg, on base percentage, and slugging. These stats show how often you're in position to produce runs, the more times you are on base, and how often you're getting yourself into scoring position. This also is why SB is something worth looking at. You don't steal 1st base, so if you are stealing a base you're moving yourself into scoring position so it's easier to be driven in.
Defense is secondary for me, while I believe defense and pitching are more important in the team game it is secondary for the MVP case. In the big leagues the difference in defensive skills and abilities for the players that are going to be considered are relative. Of the players listed above, they are all great defenders at their respective positions. The separating factor for me is flexibility and consistency. If a player shows the ability to be an elite defender and can do that wherever you place him that brings value.
#1 Candidate: Nolan Arenado
Nolan Arenado is a huge reason the Colorado Rockies are in the race for the NL West. Nolan is tied for the league in HR's (29), is 3rd in RBI's (81), 4th in Runs (75), 7th in Avg (.306), is 6th in OBP (.389), and 3rd in Slugging (.588). He plays a gold glove 3rd base, of which he already has 5. He has played in 106 of his team's 112 games. Arenado is clearly the leader of this team and thanks to some quality pitching they are just 2 games out in the west. If you're into the WAR stat, Fangraphs has Arenado 2nd in the NL with a 4.6. If Arenado can continue his pace he would have over 40 HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ runs, and will likely win another gold glove. If the Rockies make the playoffs either in the Wild Card or the West I believe Arenado is the NL MVP.
#2 Candidate: Javy Baez
Javy Baez is definitely been the MVP for the Chicago Cubs this year as I'm sure Joe Maddon would agree. Baez who has been their primary 2nd baseman for the last 3 years, has been filling in for injured teammates at SS, 3rd, and even the outfield at times this season. Baez has improved his offense this year to go with that gold glove defense that he has shown over the past 4 seasons. Baez is leading the league in RBI's (88), 6th in runs scored (71), 6th in HR's (25), and 10th in avg (.302). The argument against Baez is his OBP (.335), which is because of his terrible BB/K ratio (17/105). Baez is a free swinger and that hasn't changed much, but he's making better contact this year which accounts for the higher avg. and the drastic increase in slugging from his former career high of .480 to this year's .594. Baez's versatility I believe makes up for the low OBP and if the season were to end today with the Rockies out of the playoffs I think Javy Baez is the NL MVP. He has truly been the most valuable player to a team that has the best record in the NL.
#3 Candidate Freddie Freeman
Freddie Freeman by many accounts has been one of the most underrated players of the last 3-4 years. Mainly due to the fact that the Atlanta Braves have been in the middle of a rebuild since their last playoff appearance in 2013. Freddie is not your typical 3 hole hitter when it comes to power numbers as he's 23rd in HR's (18), but is 6th in 2B's (28). Freeman is 8th in RBI's (69) and 12th in runs (66). He is 3rd in the league with a .316 Avg. and 2nd in OBP (.397). Freeman brings his value as not just a quality bat in the line-up, but plays an above avg 1B. Freeman has also played in all 109 of Atlanta's games. Freeman is seen as a leader for a very young Braves team that is vying for a playoff spot. As much as I like Freddie and believe he's having a great season based on where the numbers are I wouldn't award it to him. That being said, if things continue as they are and the Braves at least get the Wild Card, I am betting that he is awarded the NL MVP.
There is still around 50 games left for most teams and the last two months of the season can be a big time separator when it comes to MVP. Who is going to lead their team to a playoff spot in the last month?
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